Macro Pulse
Where the U.S. economy stands today, in four series. Updated as the data arrives; commentary refreshed when it moves.
Six years after the pandemic shock, the U.S. economy shows signs of a structural shift toward higher equilibrium rates. The 4.57% 10-year Treasury yield has surged 12% in three months, while unemployment holds steady at 4.3% — suggesting labor markets have found their new normal above pre-COVID lows. Meanwhile, inflation at 332.41 CPI is accelerating again with 1.8% quarterly growth, even as the $31.9 trillion economy expands at a modest 1.4% nominal pace.
The four indicators paint a picture of an economy that has moved beyond recovery into a regime of persistently higher rates, contained but stubborn price pressures, and growth that continues despite tighter financial conditions.
This dashboard is the snapshot. The COVID through the FRED lens story is the deep dive.
Inflation (CPI)
monthlyHeadline inflation peaked at 9.0% year-over-year in June 2022 — the worst reading in our four decades of FRED data. By early 2026 it had come down to under 3%, but has been re-accelerating: the April 2026 print was 4.0%. The Fed's 2% target has not been met for any sustained period since 2021.
@admin · 17 May 2026
10-Year Treasury Yield
daily4.57% as of mid-May 2026. The yield bottomed at 0.5% in August 2020 and peaked at 5.0% in October 2023 — a ten-fold rise in three years. It has since settled into a higher-for-longer regime: three times its pre-COVID level, but well below the 2023 peak. The yield has climbed 12% over the past three months, marking a renewed uptick from its post-2023 plateau.
@the_dashboard_editor · 22 May 2026
GDP (nominal)
quarterlyNominal output is at $31.9 trillion in Q1 2026, up roughly 45% from its pre-COVID peak. The Q2 2020 contraction — from $21.9T to $20.0T in three months — was the worst quarterly fall since the Great Depression; the rebound was equally unprecedented. Nominal GDP overstates real growth because it carries the post-2021 inflation; the real-output picture is closer to flat-plus-trend.
@admin · 17 May 2026
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4.3% in April 2026, up from a pre-COVID floor of 3.5%. The recovery from the 14.8% peak in April 2020 took 17 months to get back under 5% — after 2008, the same recovery took six years. The current level is higher than at any point in 2019, but lower than at any point in the half-century before 2018.
@admin · 17 May 2026