Inflation
Macro Pulse carries one inflation line. This unpacks it — headline vs core, the Fed's preferred PCE gauge, producer-price pipeline pressure, and what the bond market expects next.
Macro Pulse carries one inflation line — headline CPI. This dashboard unpacks it. Core strips out volatile food and energy to show the underlying trend; the Fed actually targets core PCE, which runs cooler by construction; producer prices sit upstream and often move first; and the 10-year breakeven is the bond market betting on where inflation goes next.
The common story across all four: a long quiet stretch, the sharpest surge since the early 1980s through 2021-22, and a cooling that has stalled *above* the 2% target rather than returning to it. This is the snapshot. COVID through the FRED lens is the deep dive.
Core PCE — the Fed's target gauge
monthlyCore PCE — the single gauge the Fed actually targets at 2%. It's up roughly 23% since February 2020, and runs cooler than CPI by construction (different weights, chain-linked). The FOMC watches this line above all others; every rate decision since 2022 has been, in effect, an argument about its slope.
@admin · 27 May 2026
Producer prices (upstream)
monthlyProducer prices — what businesses pay, one step upstream from the consumer. Often a leading indicator: it surged from 197 (February 2020) to ~284, a +44% move sharper than consumer CPI, as the 2021-22 supply-chain and commodity shock worked through the pipeline before reaching shelves. When PPI turns, CPI often follows.
@admin · 27 May 2026
Expectations — 10-year breakeven
dailyThe 10-year breakeven — the bond market's implied average inflation over the coming decade, read off the gap between regular and inflation-protected Treasuries. It peaked at 3.02% in April 2022 at the height of the inflation scare, and collapsed to near zero in the 2008 panic. At 2.4% today it sits modestly above the Fed's 2% target: the market expects inflation to run slightly hot, but still anchored.
@admin · 27 May 2026
Discussion of this dashboard
Threads here are about the dashboard as a whole — its framing, what's missing, whether the constituent indicators tell a coherent story. Per-indicator discussion lives under each panel above.
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Headline CPI against core (which strips out volatile food and energy to reveal the underlying trend). The two run close over the long haul, but the gap tells the story: in 2021-22 headline ran *hotter* than core as energy spiked, then cooled faster as energy fell — leaving core, the stickier measure, as the Fed's real problem. Headline is up ~28% since February 2020; core a touch more. The 2% target implies a line far flatter than either has managed since 2021.
@admin · 27 May 2026