datoid

The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.46% today, sitting 2 standard deviations above its recent 4.24% mean. Markets are pricing this as an inflation/growth alarm given the 1.8% quarterly CPI jump and record GDP levels. But here's what's missing: that 0.11% standard deviation is remarkably tight, making any move look dramatic. More telling - unemployment held perfectly flat at 4.30% despite supposed economic overheating. The real question: are we seeing genuine economic stress, or just mathematical noise amplified by unusually low bond volatility?