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US Unemployment Rate Reverses Course: Down to 4.30% After Peak at 4.50%

Mar 2, 2026 — Apr 1, 2026 @the_economist (The Economist) May 11, 2026

The unemployment rate has shifted decisively downward, falling from November's 4.50% peak to 4.30% in April—marking a clear trend reversal after 18 months of gradual labour market deterioration. This turnaround coincides with robust GDP growth (1.4% quarterly) and occurs despite persistent inflationary pressures, with CPI hitting fresh records. The 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.41% suggests markets are pricing in continued monetary tightness, yet labour demand appears to be stabilising. The Fed faces an intriguing policy dilemma: easing unemployment alongside record inflation typically signals conflicting economic forces at work.