datoid

The 10-Year Treasury yield jumped to 4.61% on May 18, sitting 3.0 standard deviations above its recent mean of 4.25%. This represents a sharp acceleration from the gradual climb that began in late April. The timing coincides with record-high CPI (332.41, +1.8% over 3mo) and GDP growth (+1.4%), suggesting bond markets may be pricing in persistent inflationary pressures despite stable 4.3% unemployment. Statistical outliers of this magnitude occur roughly 0.3% of the time under normal conditions. What factors might be driving this sudden repricing?