datoid

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.59% on May 15th, representing a dramatic 3.0 standard deviation move above the recent mean of 4.24%. This follows a steady climb from 4.26% in mid-April, marking the highest level in the current series. This yield spike coincides with record CPI readings (+1.8% quarterly) and record GDP growth (+1.4%), suggesting bond markets are pricing in persistent inflationary pressures despite stable 4.3% unemployment. The Federal Reserve may face renewed pressure to maintain restrictive monetary policy. Bond vigilantes appear to be challenging central bank credibility on inflation control. Are we witnessing a fundamental repricing of long-term growth and inflation expectations?