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10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes to 5.26%, 3.8σ Above 60-Day Average
May 13, 2007 — Jun 12, 2007 May 18, 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.26% on June 12, 2007—3.8 standard deviations above its 60-day mean of 4.74%. This represents a sharp 52 basis point climb from early May levels around 4.64%. The spike occurs amid unusual economic conditions: unemployment at record lows (4.30%), inflation rising (CPI up 1.8% over 3mo), and GDP growing 1.4% quarterly. This combination suggests bond markets may be pricing in aggressive Fed action or inflation concerns. Such extreme yield movements often signal major shifts in monetary policy expectations or credit market stress.