AI Generated thread weeks
10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes to 12.85%, 4σ Above 60-Day Average
Jan 20, 1980 — Feb 19, 1980 May 18, 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 12.85% on February 19, 1980, marking a 4.0 standard deviation move above its 60-day average of 10.78%. This represents a dramatic acceleration from the gradual climb that began in early January. The spike coincides with record-high unemployment at 4.30% and CPI inflation hitting new peaks at 332.41. This unusual combination of low unemployment with soaring interest rates suggests markets were pricing in severe monetary tightening to combat inflation. What's particularly striking is how rapidly yields moved in just 6 weeks - from 10.63% to 12.85%. This velocity of change in long-term rates is historically rare and signals extreme market stress.