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10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes to 8.01%, Up 4.1σ Above 60-Day Average
Dec 10, 1977 — Jan 9, 1978 May 18, 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 8.01% on Jan 9, 1978—a massive 4.1 standard deviation spike above its 60-day mean of 7.63%. This represents the steepest single-day move in months, breaking from the gradual climb seen since late November. The timing coincides with record-low 4.3% unemployment and CPI hitting new highs. Bond markets appear to be pricing in inflation concerns as the economy runs hot with GDP growth accelerating. What's striking is how quickly yields moved after weeks of steady increases—suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment about Fed policy.