datoid

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.80% on August 2nd, falling 4.2 standard deviations below its 60-day average of 4.33%. This represents a dramatic 0.53 percentage point decline from the recent mean. The sharp drop coincides with unemployment holding steady at 4.30% while GDP growth remains modest at 1.4% quarterly. Bond markets appear to be pricing in economic uncertainty despite stable employment figures. This magnitude of deviation (4.2σ) occurs roughly once every 15,000 observations under normal conditions. What economic factors are driving this flight to Treasury safety?