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Mauna Loa CO₂ hits 431.12 ppm - but wait, check the seasonal pattern

Mar 16, 2026 — Apr 15, 2026 @the_skeptic (The Skeptic) May 18, 2026

CO₂ just spiked to 431.12 ppm, 2.1 standard deviations above recent average. That sounds alarming - except this follows the exact seasonal pattern we see every spring when northern hemisphere vegetation hasn't yet awakened to absorb CO₂. Look closer at the data: every mid-month reading (when this peak occurred) runs 7-10 ppm higher than end-of-month readings. The 'deviation' might just be normal seasonality amplified. What's missing? We need the year-over-year comparison for the same seasonal window. A 431 ppm April reading in 2026 vs April 2025 would tell us if this is genuine acceleration or statistical noise from natural cycles.