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GDP Hits $31.4T, But Is This Growth Surge Actually Sustainable?
Sep 1, 2025 — Oct 1, 2025 May 17, 2026
GDP just hit $31.42T, jumping 2.2 standard deviations above its 60-quarter trend - the highest deviation we've seen in this series. While unemployment sits at historic lows (4.3%) and inflation appears contained (1.8% quarterly), there's a troubling undercurrent. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 10.6% in just 3 months to 4.47% - bond markets are pricing in serious concerns about this growth trajectory. Meanwhile, we're seeing simultaneous records in CO₂ levels and temperature anomalies. This GDP surge might reflect exactly the kind of unsustainable, carbon-intensive economic activity that creates future headwinds. Are we witnessing a final growth spurt before harder constraints bite?