datoid

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.39% on March 20th, sitting 2.8 standard deviations above its 60-day average of 4.17%. While this looks like a dramatic spike, let's pump the brakes. First, that 0.08% standard deviation suggests an unusually stable period - perhaps artificially so. When volatility is suppressed, even modest moves appear outsized. Second, we're seeing simultaneous records: 4.3% unemployment (historically low) and rising GDP. This isn't crisis-driven selling. Most telling: CPI rose 1.8% over 3 months while yields barely budged until now. The real question isn't why yields spiked, but why they stayed so low for so long with this economic backdrop.