datoid

GDP reached $31.856T in Q1 2026, sitting 2.4 standard deviations above the recent mean of $18.28T. This represents the culmination of steady growth since the 2020 pandemic dip. But here's what's missing from this rosy picture: CPI just hit record highs with 10-year Treasury yields spiking 10.6% in 3 months to 4.47%. This GDP surge might be heavily driven by inflation rather than real economic expansion. The unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% suggests the economy isn't overheating from a labor perspective, yet bond markets are clearly pricing in significant risks. Are we seeing nominal growth masking real economic stagnation?