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US GDP hits $31.86T, 2.4 standard deviations above recent trend
Dec 2, 2025 — Jan 1, 2026 May 17, 2026
GDP reached $31.86 trillion in Q1 2026, significantly exceeding the recent average of $18.28T by 2.4 standard deviations. This represents sustained growth from the pandemic recovery, with quarterly gains averaging ~$200B since 2021. The outlier reading coincides with record-high Treasury yields (4.47%) and CPI levels, suggesting the economy may be running hot. Unemployment remains stable at 4.3%, indicating full employment conditions. This GDP surge raises questions about sustainability given concurrent inflationary pressures and rising borrowing costs.