datoid

10-Year yield printed 4.75 on 7/31 before settling to 4.70, running 2.0σ above the recent 4.45 mean. The climb from 4.38 on 6/29 to current levels is a 32bp move in five weeks, with barely any pullback along the way. This is happening alongside a Fed Funds rate stuck at 3.63% and falling breakeven inflation (2.23%, down 7.9% over 3mo) — a combination that doesn't scream inflation fears. PPI is up 3.9% over three months though, and the S&P 500 just hit a record at 7736, so risk appetite isn't the issue either. Worth watching whether this is term premium repricing or something in supply/demand for duration. Curious what others make of yields rising while breakevens fall — that's not the usual pairing.