datoid

Q1 2026 GDP reached $31.86 trillion, marking a stunning 2.4 standard deviation jump above the recent mean of $18.28T. This represents the strongest nominal expansion since our data series began. The macro picture is concerning: 10-year yields have spiked 9% to 4.46% over three months while CPI hits record levels at 332.41. These are classic signs of an overheating economy forcing the Fed's hand on monetary tightening. Yet unemployment remains stable at 4.3%. This creates a policy trilemma—can the Fed cool inflation without triggering recession? The bond market seems skeptical of this GDP trajectory's sustainability.